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Somali News

Africa force key to Somalia stability: analyst

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GULF NEWS — Dubai: Of late, rumours have done the rounds that the UN-backed African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) may withdraw from the country in a year or two. This, despite the fact that the threat from the Al Qaida-aligned Al Shabab militant group remains grave, as indicated by the horrific bombing in the capital Mogadishu in October last year that left at least 512 people dead and hundreds more injured.

“AMISOM has been in Somalia for over a decade now. Overall, its performance is a mixed bag,” said Rashid Abdi, Horn of Africa Project Director for the International Crisis Group, an influential Brussels-based think-tank. Speaking to Gulf News by phone from Nairobi, Abdi noted: “AMISOM has managed to push out Al Shabab from Mogadishu, and from many towns in south-central Somalia, especially in the past five years. But Al Shabab still exists in rural areas. And it’s not possible to control the towns and cities [fully] unless the rural areas are also under control.”

Abdi said AMISOM countries – Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and Djibouti – are caught in a difficult situation. “Eleven years on, progress has been slow. AMISOM is operating on only 80 per cent of its budget. Resources remain a challenge, especially equipment promised by Western countries. The West has talked about increasing training and equipment but they have not delivered 12 helicopter gunships as promised, for instance.”

Al Shabab still exists in rural areas. And it’s not possible to control the towns and cities [fully] unless the rural areas are also under control.”
– Rashid Abdi | Horn of Africa Project Director, International Crisis Group

For a majority of Somalis, their country has been in a state of war ever since they can remember. Full-blown warlordism became the norm in Somalia following the toppling of the military dictatorship of Siad Barre in 1991 by clan-based militias. The warlords carved out fiefdoms across the country.
A unity government formed in 2000, which had international backing, was never able to establish full control, and the two comparatively peaceful northern regions – Somaliland and Puntland – broke away, becoming de facto independent states. A coalition of Islamists jurists, called the Union of Islamic Courts, took over the capital and established a government in 2006. But, six months later, Ethiopia invaded to topple that government.

In the period that followed, Somalia was engulfed in violence. A new threat – the Al Qaida-aligned Al Shabab militant group – popped up, and AMISOM began operations in the country in February 2007.

In 2012, a new internationally-backed government was installed, but despite help from relentless US drone strikes and the backing of almost 20,000 AMISOM troops, Al Shabab continues to pose a serious threat to the authorities in Mogadishu.

“AMISOM is stretching itself … its supply lines are getting longer. Its casualties are increasing. Besides, [there is the question of] ‘liberated’ territory not being well governed, providing Al Shabab the advantage,” said Abdi.

Exit strategy talks hint at a ‘transition period’ in which the aim is to increase the capacity of the Somali National Armed Forces (SNAF). But, Abdi said, the SNAF is “nowhere near” being a cohesive force. “If AMISOM leaves, SNAF cannot manage the situation. It is not capable [of providing security] in the short to medium term.”

Abdi agreed there were many parallels between the situation in Afghanistan and Somalia. “[In both countries] we have weak governments that depend on the support of foreign forces. The parallels are obvious.”

One of the reasons that AMISOM feels like it can now move out is Somalia’s bilateral secuirty arrangements with different countries. “There is a proliferation of bilateral security arrangements. But Mogodishu’s security dealings with these countries can never replace AMISOM.”

Asked what the endgame in Somalia would look like, after decades of war, Abdi said: “That’s the million dollar question. Mogadishu looks much different than before. There have been improvements. Somalia’s federal system has reistered progress. The picture overall is not hopeles. But, if AMISOM pulls out in a hasty manner, all that will be lost.”

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Somali News

Somalis unhappy with new sales tax

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The government instituted a five percent sales tax, the first in nearly 30 years, as part of the conditions set by the IMF to relieve Somalia’s debt burden.

Going to a restaurant in Somalia has become more expensive, and customers don’t like it.

They’re angry at the government imposing a five percent sales tax, the first for nearly thirty years.

The tax is a key condition of the International Monetary Fund to relieve Somalia’s debts.

Al Jazeera’s Mohammed Adow reports from Mogadishu, Somalia.

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Briefing Room

A Child Dies, a Child Lives: Why Somalia Drought Is Not Another Famine

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DOLLOW, Somalia (Reuters) – At the height of Somalia’s 2011 famine, Madow Mohamed had to leave her crippled five-year-old son Abdirahman by the side of the road to lead her eight other starving children toward help.
When she returned to search for him, she found only a grave. He was among the 260,000 Somalis who perished.

“You can never forget leaving your child to die,” she says, wiping away tears at the memory seven years later. “It is a hell that does not end.”

This time, the drought has been harsher. Three seasons of rains have failed, instead of two. But none of Mohamed’s other children have died – and the overall death toll, although unknown, is far lower. The United Nations has documented just over 1,000 deaths, mostly from drinking dirty water.

Why?

Earlier donor intervention, less interference by a weakened Islamist insurgency, a stronger Somali government and greater access for aid workers have been crucial.

Another reason is that aid agencies are shifting from giving out food to cash – a less wasteful form of aid that donors such as Canada, Europe and Australia have embraced, although the United States still has restrictions on food aid.

The U.S. Congress will debate a move toward cash-based aid this year when lawmakers vote on a new Farm Bill. Christopher Barrett, an expert on food aid at Cornell University, is one of many scholars, politicians and aid agencies demanding reform.

“A conservative estimate is that we sacrifice roughly 40,000 children’s lives annually because of antiquated food aid policies,” he told Congress in November.

FROM FOOD TO CASH

In 2011, a few donors gave out cash in Somalia, but the World Food Programme only gave out food. It was often hijacked by warlords or pirates, or rotted under tarpaulins as trucks sat at roadblocks.

Starving families had to trek for days through the desert to reach distribution points. Their route became so littered with children’s corpses it was called “the Road of Death”.

Now, more than 70 percent of WFP aid in Somalia is cash, much of it distributed via mobile phones. More than 50 other charities are also giving out cash: each month Mohamed receives $65 from the Italian aid group Coopi to spend as she wants: milk, medicine, food or school fees.

Cash has many advantages over food aid if markets are functioning. It’s invisible, so less likely to be stolen. It’s mobile so families can move or stay put.
WFP said it gave out $134 million directly to Somali families to spend at local shops last year.

“We … basically gave confidence to the market to stay active,” said Laurent Bukera, head of WFP Somalia.

And money is more efficient than bags of food: in Somalia, cash aid means 80 cents in every $1 goes directly to the family, rather than 60 cents from food aid, said Calum McLean, the cash expert at the European Union’s humanitarian aid department.

Cash might have saved little Abdirahman.

“I could have stayed in my village if I had had cash. There was some food in the markets. It was expensive, but if you had money, there was food to buy,” Mohamed said sadly.

GLOBAL SHIFT

Aid groups have been experimenting with cash for two decades but McLean says the idea took off five years ago as the Syrian civil war propelled millions of refugees into countries with solid banking systems.

Donors have adapted. Six years ago, five percent of the EU’s humanitarian aid budget was cash distributions. Today, it is more than a third.

Most of the initial cost lies in setting up the database and the distribution system. After that, adding more recipients is cheap, McLean said. Amounts can be easily adjusted depending on the level of need or funding.

“Cash distributions also becomes cheaper the larger scale you do it,” he said.

Most U.S. international food assistance is delivered by USAID’s Food for Peace Office, which had a budget of $3.6 billion in 2017.

Just under half those funds came through U.S. Farm Bill Title II appropriations, which stipulate that most food must be bought from American farmers. The U.S. Cargo Preference Act requires that half of this be shipped on U.S.-flagged vessels.

Despite these restrictions, Food for Peace increased cash and voucher programs from 3 percent of the budget in 2011 to 20 percent last year.

But sourcing food aid in the United States is expensive and wasteful, said Barrett, who oversaw a study that found buying grain close to an emergency was half the price and 14 weeks faster. Arguments that food aid supported U.S. farmers or mariners were largely false, he said.

HOW IT WORKS

Aid groups use different systems to distribute cash, but most assess families, then register them in a biometric database, usually via fingerprints. Cash is distributed using bank cards or mobile phones or as vouchers.

Some charities place no restrictions on the cash; others, like WFP, stipulate it can only be spent at certain shops with registered shopkeepers.

In Dollow, the dusty town on the Ethiopian border where Mohamed lives with her surviving children, families say the cash has transformed their lives.

Gacalo Aden Hashi, a young mother whose name means “sweetheart”, remembers trudging past two dead children in 2011 on her way to get help. A third was alive but dying, she said, and her weakened family had to press on.

When she arrived at the camp, men were stealing food aid to give to their families, she said.

“Men were punching each other in line every time at food distributions,” she said. “Sometimes you would be sitting and suddenly your food would be taken by some strong young man.”

Now, she says, no one can steal her money – Coopi uses a system that requires a PIN to withdraw money. Most of her cash goes on food but with a group of other women she saved enough to open a small stall.

“The cash may end, but this business will not,” she said.

PROBLEMS PERSIST

Cash won’t work everywhere. In South Sudan, where famine briefly hit two counties last year, the civil war shut markets, forcing aid agencies to bring in food by plane and truck.

Sending cash to areas hit by earthquakes would drive up prices. But in a drought, where livelihoods have collapsed but infrastructure is intact, cash transfers are ideal, experts say.

Some problems remain. There’s often little co-ordination among donors – for instance, there are seven separate databases in Somalia, said McLean, and monthly stipends can vary widely.

In Uganda, authorities are investigating reports of fraud after the government used its own biometric registration system for refugees.

And if there’s no clean water or health service available, then refugees can’t spend money buying water or medicine.

But most scholars agree that switching to more cash aid would save more lives, a 2016 briefing paper by the Congressional Research Service concluded.

(Additional reporting by George Obulutsa; Writing by Katharine Houreld; Editing by Giles Elgood)

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Somaliland

Anglo-Turkish Genel Energy might starting drilling in Somaliland in 2019 -CEO

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LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) – Kurdistan-focused Genel Energy might start drilling in Somaliland next year, Chief Executive Murat Ozgul said on Thursday, as the group reported 2017 results broadly in line with expectations.

“For the long term, I really like (our) Somaliland exploration assets. It’s giving me a sense of Kurdistan 15 years ago,” Ozgul said in a phone interview. “In 2019 we may be (starting) the drilling activities.”

Chief Financial Officer Esa Ikaheimonen said Genel will focus spending money from its $162 million cash pile on its existing assets in Kurdistan but added: “You might see us finding opportunities… somewhere outside Kurdistan.”

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