There’s a new Premier but many feel that one greedy faction has simply replaced another. Momentum towards a functional state is slowing again

The election of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as President in September 2012 was meant to free politics of issues that had held it hostage for years: arguments between President and Prime Minister, failure to take institution-building seriously and embezzlement all round. It helped that he was new to politics.

It turned out, however, that he was building on shifting ground. It is now clear that Hassan Sheikh’s core supporters, a small group of Muslim Brotherhood dissidents called Damul Jadiid(‘new blood’, AC Vol 53 No 23, Hassan Sheikh keeps it in the family) was more interested in rewarding its members with government jobs than in building an ‘Islamic state’. This was much how it had turned out with Hassan Sheikh’s predecessor, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, and his Ahlu Sheikh Islamist group (AC Vol 53 No 13, End of transition looms).

Another problem is that President Hassan wants to be the sole decision-maker, even though the current set-up gives most power to the Prime Minister in a federal framework. The international community wanted to deal, for once, with an intelligent, capable President but an efficient cabinet led by a strong Prime Minister was needed to implement the measures that would transform daily life in Somalia. The contradictions have proved too much.

For nearly a year, major decisions were taken at the Presidency and Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon ‘Said‘ worked as a broker between ministers rather than the team leader described in the interim constitution. In spite of its own failings, the international community increasingly blamed him for the slow rate of building new institutions. At the Brussels conference of September 2013, donors decided a reshuffle was needed to restore credibility to the government and to get a better grip on clan politics.

At first, Shirdon, who is from the Darod/Marehan/Rer Dalal, said he would lead the reshuffle and keep his job. The presidency did not react publicly but Damul Jadiid opposed him and complained about his supposed inefficiency. No sooner, however, had Shirdon come out with the names of the new cabinet in mid-November than he was told he had to go. He felt betrayed by Hassan Sheikh and refused to resign, promising solutions to government problems. That meant that if the President really wanted him to go, he would have to get Parliament to pass a vote of non-confidence in him.

Déjà vu
This did not look like progress to many people. The same thing had happened with the two previous presidents and their ministers. Yet this time, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development, the African Union and Western governments did not interfere.

The President and his supporters, including the Parliament Speaker, Mohamed Osman Jawari (Rahenweyn/Digil Mirifle/Eelay), had had enough of Shirdon and tried to stop him addressing the members of parliament during the no-confidence debate. His wife, however, a civil society activist and shrewd political operator, Asha Haji Elmi, helped build a coalition of 124 MPs to confirm Shirdon in his post. This was now getting complicated. The only way for the President and Damul Jadiid to get their way was to find new allies in Parliament.

The not-so-new figure to enter the imbroglio was Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden (Rahenweyn), once Parliament Speaker, then Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister after 2009′s Djibouti agreement (AC Vol 54 No 18, Two cheers for the Juba deal). One of the savviest and most astute political operators – who also grew wealthy while in government – Sharif Hassan missed out on a chance to contest the national presidency. There is an unwritten agreement that President and Speaker cannot come from the same clan, so his enemies made sure that someone from his own clan, Jawari, became Speaker. That meant Sharif could not stand (AC Vol 53 No 19, New president, new laws and old enemies).

After Hassan Sheikh was elected in 2012, Sharif Hassan patiently played a long game. He rebuilt his connections with Ethiopia and pushed for a new federal entity composed of three administrative regions, Bay, Bakool and Lower Shabelle. Meanwhile, his rival within the clan, Jawari, was campaigning for a southern state that would also include Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo.

While Jawari’s election had been secured through vote-buying and the desire of many different politicians to keep out Sharif Hassan, he maintained his influence in Parliament and used it to good effect. At first he supported Shirdon but only to prove to Hassan Sheikh andDamul Jadiid that they couldn’t win the no-confidence vote without him. Cornered, Hassan Sheikh and his allies made the deal with Sharif Hassan: he would guarantee Shirdon was ousted and in return, the new cabinet would include some of his close supporters.

Parliament voted 184 against and 64 in favour on 2 December and duly saw off Shirdon. Sharif Hassan was also able to prevent a parliamentary move to exclude from the new cabinet ministers who had served in the old. That would have excluded key Damul Jadiid people, such as Abdikarim Hussein Guled (Hawiye/Habr Gidir/Saad), Mohamed Nur Ga’al(Hawiye/Murasade) and Farah Sheikh Abdiqadir (Hawiye/Sheikhal). However, these gains left Hassan Sheikh deeply in debt to a man who to many represents extreme opportunism and was also a threat to Hawiye ambitions about Lower Shabelle.

The selection of Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed (Darod/Marehan/Rer Ugas Shirmarke) as the new Prime Minister by the presidency was a tortuous process (AC Vol 55 No 2, The statelets of the nation). Abdiweli was a losing candidate in the 2012 presidential election. He nevertheless ingratiated himself with the new President through relatives. He also worked his connections to gain influence in Damul Jadiid and once he had received the endorsement of two of its heavyweights – Omar Idriss and Mahamed Ali Ibrahim – he was practically home and dry.

Abdiweli claimed that he had worked for the Islamic Development Bank in Jeddah, although we understand this was in a relatively junior position, dealing with livestock development. Many observers in Mogadishu feel that his professional record is patchy, and some seriously doubt whether he has the mettle to perform for long.

The length of time it took to announce the new cabinet was testimony to its unhappy and controversial birth. It came in a press release at two o’clock in the morning seven days after the end of the 40-day constitutional limit for appointing the cabinet. This process has already soured the relationship between the President and the new Prime Minister, we hear, and Hassan Sheikh may already be looking for a replacement. The cabinet doesn’t look as if it will last long, either.

New cabinet, old faces
Damul Jadiid obtained more ministries than ever in the 16 January reshuffle. This will do nothing to dampen widespread complaints about corruption, embezzlement and cronyism.

Notable among the Damul Jadiid ministers are: Mohamed Ma’alin Yahye, Minister at the Presidency for Interior and Federal Affairs; Abdikarim Hussein Guled, Minister of National Security; Sa’id Abdullahi Mohamed (Darod/Majerteen), Planning Minister; Farah Sheikh Abdiqadir Mohamed, Justice and Constitutional Affairs; Jama Ahmed Mohamed Oday(Dir/Isaaq/Habr Jalo), who has been with Al Islah sect but today is close to Damul Jadiid, Energy and Water; Mohamed Olow Barow (Hawiye/Galjeel), Marine Resources and Fisheries; Yusuf Amin Badiyow (Rahenweyn/Leyssan), Ports.

New Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed (Darod/Marehan/Rer Ugas Shirmarke) also got five of his friends into the government but not all the Darod ministers he wanted. The friends include Deputy Prime Minister Ridwan Hirsi Mohamed (Dir/Eidegale); Foreign Affairs Minister Ahmed Mohamed Gurass (Darod/Lelkasse), who is Abdiweli’s brother-in-law and a member of parliament; Abdi Ahmed Baafo (Hawiye/Sheikhal), who is Abdiweli’s cousin and Minister of Agriculture.

Sharif Hassan’s nominees to the cabinet also increase Ethiopian influence. They include Buri Mohamed Hamza (Gibil Ad or ‘Bantu’), Presidential Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Relations; Mohamed Sheikh Hassan Hamud (Rahenweyn/Jilible), Defence;Mustafa Sheikh Ali Dhuhulow (Hawiye/Murasade), Information; Mohamed Ibrahim Haji Aden (Dir/Bimaal) Post and Telecommunications (brother of a former Deputy Premier, Professor Abdirahman Sheikh Adam aka Ibbi); Khalid Omar Ali (Rahenweyn/Bagadi), Youth and Sport; Aden Mohamed Nur ‘Saransor’ (Rahenweyn/Hadamo), Commerce and Industry.

Many of these ministers are well known to the public, and cynicism duly greeted their appointment. Yet with relations between Prime Minister and President already so poor, few observers think the new government can last even six months. The prospects for civil society are not good and most of those familiar with Mogadishu’s Machiavellians point to the return of Sharif Hassan to politics as the most obvious sign of decline.

Source: Africa Confidential